The Only Poll That Matters

Depending on whether you read the Reuters, Zogby, or CBS/New York Times poll, Barack Obama is enjoying anywhere from a 4 to a 14 point lead over John McCain right now.

Big deal. There's only one poll out there right now that REALLY matters, and it's this one: The Scholastic Presidential Election Poll. You know, the one where the little kids line up at school and vote in mock elections? yeah, that's the best poll out there, and it has Barack Obama running away with this thing.

Since 1940, this poll had been dead-on in all but three cases: 1948, where the kids picked Dewey over Truman; 1960, where they picked Nixon over Kennedy; and 2000, where they picked Bush over Gore, which mirrored the Electoral College results, but not the popular vote.

So why am I putting so much stock in this silly schoolroom straw poll? Simple.

Kids don't know what they want. They know what they're told. I'm sure there are very rare exceptions to this, but by very rare I mean VERY rare. Kids pretty much do what they see their parents doing. At before they hit their teenage years, they cheer for whatever candidate they hear their parents cheering for.

This is a very telling poll; polling children gets to the heart of what's being discussed in households across America far better than some random caller from Reuters can.

Now, it's not exactly a PERFECT method. You have to factor in variables. Like, for example, households with more than one kid under 12. Two pro-Obama parents with 4 pro-Obama kids will cause the poll to skew further Obamawards than their actual votes will. But when you account for the broad spectrum of American households with multiple children, spread across multiple areas and political leanings, it all evens out fairly well.

Even the three anamolies can be pretty well explained away. The 2000 election was well within any poll's margin of error, and 1960 had some veeeeeeery suspicious vote counts coming out of Chicago. And 1948 was a very unique election, with Truman's victory being attributed to a major shift in public opinion very late in the campaign, and well after the Scholastic poll was taken.

I guess a major shift in opnion is possible in this election, too. In fact I think this election has more potential for volatility than any election in our nation's history. But that being said, this poll gives Barack Obama an 18-point lead over McCain, 57 to 39 percent. It would have to be an awfully big opinion shift to wipe out that kind of a margin.

So sorry, Republicans, but you're most likely going to lose this one. But come on, look at who you chose... did you really expect any other result?